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Wednesday, 11 December 2002

BradWatch

A fun, if not slightly depressing, article from Brad DeLong. Scratch that. Not fun. Interesting. Anyway:

Suppose that you are a bomber pilot flying a B-17 in the European Theater of Operations during World War II. You know that 4% of bombers get shot down on average on each mission. You want to calculate the chance that you would successfully fly all the missions of your tour of duty--to make things simple, let's say 50 (a larger number than was actually asked of air crews)--without getting shot down. [more]

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